Mavericks vs Heat prediction: model still makes winless Miami a 60% favorite

The Miami Heat host the Dallas Mavericks at 7:30 PM ET on Monday. Miami are still looking for their first win, but the model makes them the favorite.

Form

Miami are 0-3 and have allowed 124.7 points per game: 131-106 to Minnesota, 128-111 to Detroit and 115-110 at Charlotte. Dallas are 1-2 after a 128-110 loss at Houston, a 121-105 win at Indiana and a 122-106 home loss to San Antonio. Both teams last played on Saturday, so neither is on a back-to-back.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is carrying the Heat's offense with 28.3 points and 8.0 rebounds in 29.2 minutes per game. He scored 35 and 36 before a 14-point night at Charlotte, where he shot 4-of-11. Davion Mitchell adds 17.0 points and 8.7 assists. For Dallas, Cooper Flagg is averaging 23.0 points in two appearances (32 at Houston, 14 in 17 minutes at Indiana). Kyrie Irving is at 19.5 points in about 24 minutes a night.

Key absences

The official NBA injury report (4:45 PM ET) lists Dallas without Naji Marshall (illness), Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Caleb Martin (right thumb sprain), Santi Aldama (right knee surgery) and Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis). Flagg is probable with a left shoulder sprain. Marshall's absence costs the Mavericks 13.7 points and 5.7 assists per game. Miami list Pelle Larsson as available (left finger sprain).

Model projection

HoopMetrics projects Miami 117.9, Dallas 114.7: a 232.6-point total and a 3.2-point Heat margin, which works out to a 60.0% Miami win probability. Three games is a small sample, so the team ratings still put roughly 73% of their weight on last season's numbers, regressed toward the league average. Miami's 0-3 start has therefore only partly reached the projection. Home court is worth 2.6 points in the model.

Prop angles

Player	Market	Line	Model proj.	Model prob.	Price
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Pts+Reb+Ast under	48.5	40.7	68.9%	1.80
Giannis Antetokounmpo	Rebounds under	11.5	9.0	67.8%	1.80
Davion Mitchell	Points over	10.5	13.8	67.8%	1.82
Kyrie Irving	Pts+Reb+Ast under	28.5	23.5	68.3%	1.90

• Antetokounmpo's combined line is set high. He has posted 23, 53 and 42 points-rebounds-assists so far, so he stayed under 48.5 in two of three games. The model's projected 28.3 minutes is close to his 29.2-minute average.
• Mitchell has scored 22, 18 and 11 and cleared 10.5 every time. He is projected for 35 minutes, the most of any Heat player with a points line.
• Irving has gone for 28 and 21 combined in his two games. The model projects 24.5 minutes again.
• The model also leans under on Flagg's lines. Those leans rest on a 22.3-minute projection built from two games, one of which lasted 17 minutes. With his shoulder on the report, we rate them low confidence.

Odds, edges and every player line are on the full match page.

Projections are research, not betting advice. Please bet responsibly.