Hoopmetrics

Model picks

Projected scores from team scoring rates, priced against the live Superbet offer. Edges at or above +3% are flagged once both teams have played 5 games; before that the numbers are shown without a recommendation.

2026-270 value spots
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 8:00 PMEarly season
CHIChicago Bulls111.0MILMilwaukee Bucks115.3

226.2

proj. total

Home win probability63.5%
Under 223.5
44% vs 26%3.80+68.0%
MIL 1.5
68% vs 55%1.82+23.5%
MIL ML
64% vs 52%1.92+22.0%
CHI 10.5
69% vs 83%1.20-17.2%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PMEarly season
NYKNew York Knicks111.0BOSBoston Celtics113.5

224.5

proj. total

Home win probability57.9%
BOS 3.5
68% vs 67%1.50+2.7%
Over 222.5
54% vs 53%1.87+1.6%
BOS ML
58% vs 59%1.70-1.6%
NYK 3.5
53% vs 55%1.82-3.2%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PMEarly season
ATLAtlanta Hawks111.8CHACharlotte Hornets114.4

226.2

proj. total

Home win probability58.2%
CHA 2.5
66% vs 51%1.95+28.4%
CHA ML
58% vs 47%2.15+25.2%
Over 211.5
79% vs 81%1.23-3.3%
Under 239.5
76% vs 80%1.25-4.5%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PMEarly season
DALDallas Mavericks111.5INDIndiana Pacers115.3

226.8

proj. total

Home win probability61.8%
Under 222.5
41% vs 28%3.55+44.9%
DAL 4.5
52% vs 47%2.15+12.3%
DAL ML
38% vs 36%2.80+6.9%
IND 5.5
77% vs 83%1.21-6.6%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PMEarly season
MINMinnesota Timberwolves113.3ORLOrlando Magic114.2

227.5

proj. total

Home win probability52.6%
Under 224.5
44% vs 33%3.00+30.7%
ORL 2.5
61% vs 55%1.83+11.1%
ORL ML
53% vs 49%2.05+7.9%
MIN 10.5
78% vs 85%1.17-8.9%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:00 PMEarly season
TORToronto Raptors112.7WASWashington Wizards113.5

226.2

proj. total

Home win probability52.8%
WAS ML
53% vs 33%3.00+58.4%
WAS 1.5
57% vs 37%2.67+53.0%
Under 221.5
40% vs 27%3.70+47.9%
TOR 5.5
65% vs 85%1.18-23.7%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 12:00 AMEarly season
DETDetroit Pistons112.7MIAMiami Heat113.5

226.2

proj. total

Home win probability52.4%
Under 221.5
40% vs 27%3.70+47.9%
MIA 1.5
57% vs 54%1.85+6.0%
MIA ML
52% vs 52%1.92+0.7%
DET 3.5
59% vs 62%1.62-5.1%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 1:30 AMEarly season
HOUHouston Rockets112.3SASSan Antonio Spurs113.2

225.5

proj. total

Home win probability53.0%
HOU 1.5
52% vs 40%2.47+28.2%
HOU ML
47% vs 37%2.67+25.5%
Under 228.5
56% vs 55%1.83+3.3%
Over 212.5
76% vs 81%1.23-6.7%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 1:30 AMEarly season
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans112.2UTAUtah Jazz113.9

226.1

proj. total

Home win probability55.3%
Under 223.5
44% vs 25%4.00+77.6%
UTA 3.5
66% vs 65%1.53+1.2%
NOP 3.5
56% vs 56%1.78-0.8%
UTA ML
55% vs 58%1.73-4.4%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 2:00 AMEarly season
MEMMemphis Grizzlies112.6GSWGolden State Warriors112.9

225.5

proj. total

Home win probability50.8%
Under 219.5
37% vs 26%3.80+41.7%
MEM 3.5
60% vs 55%1.83+10.0%
MEM ML
49% vs 47%2.12+4.2%
GSW 9.5
78% vs 84%1.19-6.8%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 2:00 AMEarly season
LACLos Angeles Clippers111.3LALLos Angeles Lakers113.7

225.0

proj. total

Home win probability57.7%
LAC ML
42% vs 25%4.00+69.1%
LAC 1.5
47% vs 29%3.45+62.6%
Under 228.5
57% vs 52%1.92+10.4%
Over 213.5
73% vs 81%1.23-9.8%
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 2:00 AMEarly season
PORPortland Trail Blazers112.3SACSacramento Kings111.3

223.6

proj. total

Home win probability46.6%
SAC ML
47% vs 29%3.50+63.1%
SAC 1.5
52% vs 32%3.15+62.5%
Under 218.5
39% vs 27%3.65+42.9%
POR 3.5
64% vs 84%1.19-23.8%
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 10:00 PMNo edge
MIAMiami Heat110.3CHACharlotte Hornets114.7

225.1

proj. total

Home win probability63.7%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
BKNBrooklyn Nets110.8CLECleveland Cavaliers113.3

224.1

proj. total

Home win probability58.1%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
MILMilwaukee Bucks110.5PHIPhiladelphia 76ers114.4

224.9

proj. total

Home win probability62.5%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
WASWashington Wizards113.3CHIChicago Bulls112.9

226.2

proj. total

Home win probability48.5%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
SASSan Antonio Spurs111.6DALDallas Mavericks113.9

225.5

proj. total

Home win probability57.2%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 12:30 AMNo edge
HOUHouston Rockets112.8ATLAtlanta Hawks114.8

227.6

proj. total

Home win probability56.3%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 1:00 AMNo edge
NOPNew Orleans Pelicans110.7DENDenver Nuggets112.8

223.6

proj. total

Home win probability56.7%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 2:00 AMNo edge
GSWGolden State Warriors111.5PHXPhoenix Suns113.0

224.4

proj. total

Home win probability54.9%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 9:00 PMNo edge
LALLos Angeles Lakers112.6UTAUtah Jazz112.9

225.5

proj. total

Home win probability50.8%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 10:00 PMNo edge
INDIndiana Pacers111.7BKNBrooklyn Nets113.7

225.4

proj. total

Home win probability56.5%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11:00 PMNo edge
ORLOrlando Magic111.6NYKNew York Knicks114.2

225.8

proj. total

Home win probability58.4%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11:00 PMNo edge
TORToronto Raptors112.1MINMinnesota Timberwolves113.7

225.8

proj. total

Home win probability55.1%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11:00 PMNo edge
LACLos Angeles Clippers109.8OKCOklahoma City Thunder112.3

222.1

proj. total

Home win probability57.6%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
DETDetroit Pistons110.7PHIPhiladelphia 76ers113.6

224.4

proj. total

Home win probability59.0%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 1:00 AMNo edge
MEMMemphis Grizzlies112.3SACSacramento Kings112.4

224.7

proj. total

Home win probability50.3%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 11:00 PMNo edge
WASWashington Wizards111.6CHACharlotte Hornets113.9

225.4

proj. total

Home win probability57.4%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 11:00 PMNo edge
MINMinnesota Timberwolves112.3CLECleveland Cavaliers113.1

225.4

proj. total

Home win probability52.4%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
CHIChicago Bulls110.6BOSBoston Celtics115.1

225.7

proj. total

Home win probability64.2%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
DALDallas Mavericks112.1MIAMiami Heat114.3

226.4

proj. total

Home win probability57.0%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
INDIndiana Pacers112.7MILMilwaukee Bucks114.4

227.1

proj. total

Home win probability55.6%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
PHXPhoenix Suns107.7OKCOklahoma City Thunder113.8

221.6

proj. total

Home win probability68.7%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 12:30 AMNo edge
ATLAtlanta Hawks112.2HOUHouston Rockets115.4

227.6

proj. total

Home win probability60.1%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 1:00 AMNo edge
MEMMemphis Grizzlies112.4UTAUtah Jazz112.8

225.2

proj. total

Home win probability51.2%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Monday, October 26, 2026 · 2:00 AMNo edge
GSWGolden State Warriors109.9DENDenver Nuggets113.0

222.9

proj. total

Home win probability60.0%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 11:30 PMNo edge
BKNBrooklyn Nets111.2BOSBoston Celtics113.7

224.9

proj. total

Home win probability58.1%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
DETDetroit Pistons111.3NYKNew York Knicks113.2

224.5

proj. total

Home win probability55.8%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 12:00 AMNo edge
SACSacramento Kings110.5SASSan Antonio Spurs113.8

224.3

proj. total

Home win probability60.5%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 3:00 AMNo edge
PORPortland Trail Blazers111.5LALLos Angeles Lakers113.0

224.4

proj. total

Home win probability54.9%

No Superbet price captured for this game yet.

Model v1: team offence/defence with an 8-game prior, margin σ 12.5, totals σ 18.5. Value labels need 5 games per team; early-season projections are direction-only. Edges are model probability × decimal price − 1. Not financial advice.