Warriors vs Nuggets prediction: model backs Jokić and Murray as winless Golden State visits Denver

The Golden State Warriors are still looking for their first win when they visit the Denver Nuggets at 10:00 PM ET.

Form

Golden State are 0-3 and are allowing 123.0 points per game. They lost 127-105 at the Lakers, 111-108 at home to Memphis and 131-122 at Phoenix. Denver are 1-1: they lost 96-84 at Oklahoma City, then beat New Orleans 141-135 in overtime on Saturday.

That overtime game was a showcase for Denver's stars. Nikola Jokić posted a 35-point, 15-rebound, 10-assist triple-double in 43 minutes, and Jamal Murray scored 42 on 12-of-25 shooting with eight threes. Both had struggled in the opener at Oklahoma City, where Jokić scored 13 on 5-of-19 and Murray scored 6 on 2-of-11. For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is averaging 23.5 points in 25.5 minutes. Yaxel Lendeborg adds 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds, including 26 points and six threes at Phoenix.

Key absences

The official NBA injury report (4:45 PM ET) rules out three Warriors: Jimmy Butler III (right ACL repair), Moses Moody (left patellar tendon repair) and Kristaps Porziņģis (not with team). Gui Santos is questionable with left knee tendinitis. Denver list Cameron Johnson as doubtful (right ankle sprain) and are without Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones and Julian Strawther.

Model projection

HoopMetrics projects Denver 118.4, Golden State 113.1, with a 231.5-point total and a 5.4-point Nuggets margin. That works out to a 66.6% Denver win probability. Two and three games are thin samples, so the ratings still lean mostly on last season's numbers, regressed toward the league average.

Prop angles

Player	Market	Line	Model proj.	Model prob.	Price
Nikola Jokić	Points over	26.5	32.8	67.1%	1.88
Jamal Murray	Points over	23.5	30.2	69.3%	1.88
Yaxel Lendeborg	Pts+Reb+Ast over	24.5	32.5	74.0%	1.87
Trevon Brazile	Rebounds over	6.5	11.2	76.6%	1.82

• Jokić and Murray are each projected for 40.9 minutes. That minutes figure is the main caveat, because it is built from only two games and one of them went to overtime. A lopsided score would cut it, and with it the scoring projections. Each player has cleared his line once in two games.
• Lendeborg has posted 40, 37 and 17 combined points, rebounds and assists. He has cleared 24.5 twice, and the model projects 35.5 minutes for him.
• Trevon Brazile has pulled down 12 and 9 rebounds in 18 and 28 minutes. With Johnson doubtful, the model's 11.2 sits well above the 6.5 line.
• Curry's points line is 24.5 against a 23.6 projection, so the model passes on him.

Odds, edges and every player line are on the full match page.

Projections are research, not betting advice. Please bet responsibly.