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Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction: unbeaten Minnesota a coin flip in Cleveland, Edwards questionable
The HoopMetrics model has the 3-0 Timberwolves at 51.6% on a back-to-back in Cleveland, projecting 115.0-114.5, while Anthony Edwards is questionable with right knee injury management.
The Minnesota Timberwolves take their 3-0 start to the Cleveland Cavaliers at 7:00 PM ET. The model sees almost nothing between the two sides.
Form
Minnesota have won by an average of 121.0 to 97.7: 131-106 at Miami, 115-93 at Orlando and 117-94 against Toronto on Sunday. That last game means tonight is the second night of a back-to-back. Cleveland are 1-1 after a 114-106 loss at Philadelphia and a 125-121 home win over Brooklyn.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 28.7 points. That figure includes 45 points on 16-of-29 shooting with nine threes at Miami, a 15-point night on 5-of-23 at Orlando and 26 against Toronto. On the other side, Donovan Mitchell is averaging 27.0 points and 7.5 rebounds. Evan Mobley adds 19.0 points and 9.0 rebounds, and Jarrett Allen has made 13 of his 18 shots. James Harden is at 14.0 points and 6.0 assists but has shot 6-of-20 from the field.
Key absences
The official NBA injury report (4:45 PM ET) lists Edwards as questionable with right knee injury management, on the second night of a back-to-back. Donte DiVincenzo is out (right Achilles tendon repair). Cleveland are without Khalifa Diop (left knee injury management) and Nae'Qwan Tomlin (left low back stress reaction).
Model projection
HoopMetrics projects Minnesota 115.0, Cleveland 114.5, with a 229.4-point total. That gives the Timberwolves a 51.6% win probability on the road. With only three and two games played, the ratings still lean mostly on last season's numbers: about 73% for Minnesota and 80% for Cleveland. Minnesota's defensive start is only partly priced in. Edwards' points line is 27.5 and the model projects 26.0, so it passes on him. If he sits, read Minnesota's 115.0 with extra caution.
Prop angles
| Player | Market | Line | Model proj. | Model prob. | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | Pts+Reb+Ast under | 31.5 | 23.5 | 79.6% | 1.83 |
| LaMelo Ball | Points under | 18.5 | 14.8 | 68.2% | 1.92 |
| Donovan Mitchell | Pts+Reb+Ast over | 33.5 | 39.7 | 65.1% | 1.80 |
| Donovan Mitchell | Rebounds over | 4.5 | 5.4 | 60.2% | 2.02 |
- LaMelo Ball is playing 22.8 minutes a game in Minnesota, and the model projects 20.8 tonight. His combined totals of 24, 22 and 29 all stayed under 31.5. He has scored 15, 12 and 21.
- Mitchell went for 45 combined at Philadelphia and 31 against Brooklyn. The model projects 35.4 minutes, and he has grabbed 5 and 10 rebounds.
- Both of Cleveland's samples are two games long, so the Mitchell angles rely more on last season's profile than the Ball angles do.
Odds, edges and every player line are on the full match page.
Projections are research, not betting advice. Please bet responsibly.